Congress Keeps Beating Wall Street: What Pelosi’s Trades Signal Now

Congress Is Buying These Stocks. Here’s How You Can Trade Smarter.

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Why Track Congress? Because Results Don’t Lie

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Year after year, Congressional portfolios have outpaced the market with uncanny timing. Instead of fuming, learn from the tape. One standout: Nancy Pelosi’s early AI bet that’s up ~935% over several years, and fresh buys lawmakers are making across seven AI names right now. ‍

• Across 2021–2024 (and as far back as tracked), members of Congress have outperformed major indices—often by wide margins—with “exquisite” timing per the source.

• The STOCK Act exists, but the practical penalty highlighted is as little as $200—no real deterrent.

• Pelosi’s 10-year: ~+767% vs the S&P’s ~+247% (source). Reports peg up to ~$43M in gains for her in 2024 alone (source).

• Party-themed ETFs (“NC” and “GOP”) slightly beat the S&P in some recent windows but trail QQQ and carry ~0.74% fees (source). Stock-picking still matters.

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The 7 AI Names Lawmakers (and Institutions) Are Buying

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1) Broadcom (AVGO): Pelosi’s Big Exercise, Big Run

• Move: Pelosi exercised 200 calls → 20,000 shares; since purchase +48% vs S&P ~+9.5% (source).
• Run: ~+150% (1y), +935% (5y), +2,800% (10y); near highs.
• Valuation (source view): Forward P/E ~44 vs 5-yr 18.2; dividend below 5-yr avg—overvaluation signals.
• Institutions: ~77% ownership; strong net buying in last year and Q2.
• DCF (source): $258 fair value → downside from here; little/no MOS.

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2) Nvidia (NVDA): Fair Price for a Franchise

• Run: ~+64% (1y), +1,000% (5y), +30,000% (10y).
• Valuation: Forward P/E ~32 vs hist 41 → potential undervaluation vs its own history.
• Institutions: Persistent net buyers.
• DCF (source): $164–$178; reverse DCF bakes ~20–21% growth → around fair value; MOS at ~$160–$147.

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3) Lam Research (LRCX): Loved, But Thin Cushion

• Run: ~+47% (1y); hovering near highs.
• Institutions: ~85% ownership; heavy net buying.
• DCF (source): ~$110; ~3% MOS now; more attractive near $99.

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4) AMD (AMD): Growth Without a Wild Premium

• Run: ~+12% (1y); YTD +32%.
• Valuation: PEG ~1.33 (below sector ~1.8) → growth-adjusted value looks reasonable.
• Institutions: Net buyers; Q2 buying ~3x selling.
• DCF (source): $162 at 20% LT growth; ~3% MOS now; buy-zones at $146 / $130.

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5) Microsoft (MSFT): Quality at Fair Value

• Run: ~+21% (1y); YTD +19%.
• Valuation: Forward P/E ≈ 5-yr avg; “fair” per source.
• DCF (source): $501 at 16% growth; buy-zones ~$451/$400; Street sees ~+24%.

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6) Meta (META): Conservative Inputs, Real Upside

• Run: ~+49% (1y); near highs.
• Valuation: Slight premium vs 5-yr forward P/E.
• DCF (source): At 12% growth, modest MOS; at 14%, fair value ~$927 (~+23%). Street ~+16%.

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7) Amazon (AMZN): Pay for Growth or Wait for MOS

• Run: ~+28% (1y); YTD ~+5%.
• Valuation: Forward P/E high vs sector but far below its own 5-yr; PEG ≈2 (~fair for durable growers).
• DCF (source): $228 at 20% growth (≈fair value); big upside only if you underwrite ~25%+ LT growth.

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8) Alphabet (GOOGL): Superb Business, Slight Premium

• Run: ~+61% (1y); near highs.
• Valuation: Forward P/E above 5-yr; recently above the source’s “fair-value band.”
• DCF (source): $229 at 12% growth → ~4% premium now; better MOS if you assume 14% growth or get a pullback.

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How to Use These Signals (Without Guessing)

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• Treat disclosures as confirmation, not triggers. They’re delayed.
• Stack signals: Lawmaker buys plus institutional net flows plus your valuation/MOS.
• Size with discipline: Start small at fair value; add on weakness toward MOS levels.
• Diversify AI: Blend semis (NVDA/AMD/LRCX) with platforms (MSFT/META/AMZN/GOOGL).

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Members of Congress may always have “better timing,” but that doesn’t mean you have to trade blind.

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